Chris Matthews

He is a talking head.

The "Bradley Effect". That's what the talking heads on "Hardball" are blaming the loss of Obama to Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire on. The "Bradley effect" gets its name from the 1982 California Gubernatorial election (in which both Dyna and Cindy were too young to vote) where, it is said, people said they would vote for Tom Bradley, a black man, but didn't.

However,it just doesn't hold up to scrutiny. "Hardball" mentioned three races, Bradley, Dinkins, and I forget the other one, however, while the polling data was one or two points higher than the actual votes for the black candidate, the voting numbers and the polling numbers were within the statistical margin of error.

The other candidate dramatically increased their numbers from what they were polling at, however, the polling numbers for the black candidate was rock solid.

What the hell does that mean? It means that the people who said they were going to vote for the black candidate... DID vote for the black candidate.

The "Bradley effect" does not exist. What does exist, however, is a "Deukmejian effect". "Who the hell is Deukmejian?", my Michigander readers may ask. George Deukmejian is the man who ran and won against Tom Bradley. Deukmejian was polling about six or seven points behind Bradley before the election. That is outside of the margin of error. What basically happened was, the people who said they were unsure of who they were voting for, decided to vote for Deukmejian.

Hillary's numbers were soft, and Obama's numbers were hard. Look at the polls. All of the polls said that Obama was going to get around 36 or 37 points. He GOT 37 points. The old saw that people lie to pollsters about voting for the black candidate is pure crap.

Hillary took the undecided vote, and cannibalized Edwards' supporters, while Obama's numbers held fast.

There is no "Bradley effect".