The Chevy Volt is his baby.
The Volt is coming to Hamtramck. Most excellent. I don't think I have wrote about the Volt here, but I do remember talking online with Chud about it a while ago. This was one of the concessions that GM gave the union after their fake nationwide strike.
Any ways, the Chevy Volt is a great idea that will more than likely herald the end of single power plant vehicles. It may also herald the end of General Motors, too.
Wait. Hold the Phone. Why would an innovative product cause a company to fail? Let me explain it to you. The Chevy Volt, as designed, is a million mile car. Why is this a bad thing?
For the last fifty years, the automotive market has been dependent on the 100,000 mile car. Now, when I say "100,000 mile car" I don't mean that at 100,000 miles, the car just dies. No, I mean the maintenance and repair costs after 100,000 miles begin to get ever larger and more frequent.
The economically sensible choice after about 150,000 miles is to simply get a replacement vehicle. Now, if a car was driven 12,000 miles a year, that means the vehicle hits the 150,000 mile mark in twelve and a half years. Most people I know probably drive fifteen thousand miles a year. Which means a new car every ten years.
The Chevy Volt, and all of its imitators... simply won't be constrained to such a schedule. There is no drivetrain in the Volt. Its engine is attached to a generator, and the electric motors in the wheels derive their energy from the batteries. Do you have any idea how long an engine that only runs at optimal revs every once in a while can last? I can assure you, it has to be much longer than the engine that has to idle, rev up, rev down, and turn on every time you drive your car.
Moreover, even if the engine dies, the car can still run on its batteries alone.
Which brings me to the point of the batteries. GM says they will probably last about ten years. This is probably true. Indeed, the need to replace the batteries within the timespan of a 100,000 mile car is more than likely how Bob Lutz was able to sell the Volt to the board at GM.
Unfortunately for GM, there is no way on earth that replacing the batteries is going to cost even a quarter as much as a brand new vehicle. If an average driver has the choice of replacing the batteries of the Volt, which aside for failing batteries, is performing in exactly the same manner as on the day she bought it, or buying a new car that will cost as much as four times as much as the batteries...
Yeah. GM is unlikely to get a relevant market share of the battery replacement business, either. When was the last time you went to the dealer to buy a battery, NOW?
Electric motors... don't wear out. Indeed, even if they do somehow wear out... They will not wear out all at once, and will not cost nearly as much as a new drivetrain would, and sure as hell won't cost as much as a new bloody car.
One million miles at 15,000 miles a year is 66 years and nine months. Each Chevy volt purchased is the loss of an automobile consumer from the entire market.
I don't know if this is a good or a bad thing, to tell you the truth.
Every gun that is made, every warship launched, every rocket fired signifies, in the final sense, a theft from those who hunger and are not fed, those who are cold and are not clothed. This world in arms is not spending money alone. It is spending the sweat of its laborers, the genius of its scientists, the hopes of its children.
- President Dwight D. Eisenhower
Saturday, September 29, 2007
Robert Lutz
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
7 comments:
you are always so narrow minded. interiors wear out, ancillary items break, electronics acquire "ghosts", and quite simply people look at new body styles and shiny new accessories and want to buy new. period. just because it CAN last for 1,000,000 miles, doesn't mean every consumer will keep it for that long. besides, as technology increases and cheapens people will upgrade. my computer from 1992 still runs. still does everything i want it to. do i use it anymore? nope. i unplugged it laid it on its side and am using it as a table. people grow, tech grows, styles change, life moves on, and NO one wants to be stuck with a "daily driver" for 66 years.
Maybe not 66 years, but 22 years is possible.
Moreover, all of the ancillary items, electronics, and interiors... won't wear out all at the same time, and will cost peanuts compared to a new car or a new drive train or a new engine.
As for body styles, the Volt's body is made out of composite plastic. It can easily and cheaply be modified and replaced.
Some people may indeed buy new. However... the possibility of NOT buying new is now there.
No one wants to be stuck with a daily driver for sixty six years. However, being able to give a car that performs as new to my kid in 22 years? And then HE can give it to HIS kid???
your average person would rather buy new, than retrofit the old. fact. sure, the shit won't wear out at the same time, but you're nuts if you think the parts will be cheap. with a car that lasts, something has to have a planned obsolesence in it. and to make some shit cheap so that it fails is standard practice. if the car is supposed to last forever, don't you think body parts will be overpriced accordingly?
While a drivetrain is really hard to manufacture, an electric motor is not difficult at all. I suppose parts suppliers to GM would have to sign contracts where they would have to sell their motors at a contrived price, but since motors require only current, as long as you used a motor that was strong enough, it does not need to be from the part supplier that GM uses.
GM has a fancy-nancy connector to supply the current to the motor? Cut that connector off, and put on a generic one.
The computer will only function when it has that fancy-nancy connector? Hack the computer.
Dude, the body is made from recycled water bottles. Anyone can buy crushed water bottles; they are an open-market commodity. Hell, just take the actual body off, and melt IT into whatever shape you want.
There already is a custom-interior market.
ENOUGH people will retrofit rather than buy new. Not all, not most, but enough.
dude, ALL of that shit is available to do to cars now. hell, you can rebuild a motor and re-do the interior, for far cheaper than buying new. a new engine can go about 1-3k. new trans 1-2k. new interior about the same. so, assuming you had a multiple catastrophic failures of engine, trans, and interior, for about 7k in parts and about another grand in labor you could fix everything. instead of buying new for upwards of 20k. if you have a 2000 cadillac cts and want a 2008, you can upgrade the motor for about 8k, buy all new body tins for about the same, and re-do the interior for another 4 grand. so you can do a complete retrofit and for probably a lot cheaper, for about 20k. a new '08 starts at 33k. why don't more people do that? because no one wants to. no one does it. why? because it's EASIER to buy new. that's what we love, as americans... easy. period.
First off, in the Volt, the engine will probably need to be replaced right about the time you are applying for social security. That might be some hyperbole, but yeah...
There is no transmission.
The interior may indeed have a lifespan around ten years. It would probably cost about a twentieth as much as a new car to replace.
Finally, SOME people want to do as you have said to a CTS. Moreover, there are about eight hundred million cars on the road today, and 300 million Americans.
The true growth sector is outside of North America. Chinese culture is very, very different than that of American culture.
Enough, not all, not most, but enough people will choose to retrofit rather than replace. That amount, "enough", is simply going to become more and more of the population as time goes by.
i still say you're wrong. the auto companies aren't so dumb to make a car that will last that long. they will phase in planned obsolesence into many things. people will upgrade, and buy new. because the volt isn't going to be the only kid on the block forever. people will trade in their volt for the ford watt. people will trade in their watts for toyota amperes, and the amps for volvo joules. there will be competition and there will be problems, and people will buy new. we always do. there's no need to buy new now, you could in effect be driving the same car for life for cheaper than a new car every few years. we don't do it.
Post a Comment